2023 Industry Outlook

News

20 November 2023
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20Nov

Petroleum Refining:

2023 is a big year for refinery additions; many long-awaited plants will be completed, bringing global refining capacity totals back to 2019 levels.

In North America, 2023 is the biggest year since 2019 for planned maintenance; 2024 is expected to be similar.

Globally, 11 refineries (1.4mn bpd) under construction; 4 refineries (1.4mn bpd) nearing completion

Petroleum Refining Projects (kickoff 2023-24):

ExxonMobil Baton Rouge (Completed) Delek – Tyler Refinery (Completed) Valero – Texas City Refinery (Completed)

Phillips 66 – Lake Charles Refinery (Westlake) (Completed)

Valero – Port Arthur Refinery (Completed)

Flint Hills Resources – Corpus Christi Refinery - West (Completed) Valero – Port Arthur Refinery (High Probability of Completion) Valero – Houston Refinery (High Probability of Completion) Cenovus – Lima Refinery (High Probability of Completion)

Phillips 66 – Sweeny Refinery (Medium Probability of Completion) Chevron – Pasadena Refinery (High Probability of Completion) Marathon – Detroit Refinery (High Probability of Completion)

U.S. Construction Activity by Industry:

Petroleum refining project count is up by 60% from 2022, investments are up by 23% from 2022. O&G Production project count is up by 6% from 2022, investments are down by 26% from 2022. Terminals project count is up by 214% from 2022, investments are up by 140% from 2022.

Alternative fuel project count is down by 4% from 2022, investments are up by 10% from 2022. Chemical processing project count is down by 1% from 2022, investments are down by 30% from 2022.

Industrial manufacturing project count is down by 4% from 2022, investments are down by 64% from

2022.

Midstream Projects likely to move forward:

TC Energy 2023 Intra-Basin Sys Expansion (74 miles) ANR-Gulf Coast & Midwest MarketAccess (125 miles) TC Energy GTN Xpress (85 miles)

TC Energy Edson Mainline (56.2 miles)

Tennessee Gas – Evangeline Pass Expansion (13.3 miles) MPLX/Enlink/Devon/Whitewater – Matterhorn (490 miles)

Upstream:

U.S Gulf of Mexico crude oil production is back to 2019 levels as of Jan 2023 (1.9 million bpd)

- 2023/24 levels expected to reach 2 million bpd

Offshore online projects:

Shell Vito Semi-Submersible FPU: 100,000 bbl/d (1st Qtr. 2023)

BP Mad Dog 2 Semi-Submersible FPU: 120,000 bbl/d (1st Qtr. 2023)

Offshore projects in construction phase include:

Chevron’s Anchor Semi-Submersible FPU: 75,000 bbl/d (1st Qtr. 2024) Shell Offshore Whale Semi-Submersible FPU: 140,000 bbl/d (2nd Qtr. 2024)

Beacon Offshore Shenandoah Semi-Submersible FPU: 70,000 bbl/d (4th Qtr. 2024)

Offshore projects recently approved:

Shell Offshore Dover Subsea Tieback: 20,000 bbl/d (1st Qtr. 2025)

Chevron Corporation Ballymore Subsea Tieback: 75,000 bbl/d (1st Qtr. 2025) LLOG Offshore Salamanca FPU: 60,000 bbl/d (2nd Qtr. 2025)

Carbon Capture and Sequestration:

Currently, 3,700 miles of new CO2 pipeline infrastructure is in active development to transport CO2 to Class VI well locations in permitting. To meet net-zero targets by 2050, a CO2 pipeline buildout of 70,000 miles (or $225 Billion) and $80 billion in carbon capture equipment would be required.

Projects:

Ascension Clean Energy (ACE) - Donaldsonville Grassroot Blue Hydrogen Ammonia Complex Dow Incorporated - Fort Saskatchewan Net-Zero Ethelyne Unit Addition

St. Charles Clean Fuel Holdings - St Charles Grassroot Blue Ammonia Plant

Air Products and Chemicals - Geismar Grassroot Darrow Blue Hydrogen Complex Lake Charles Methanol LLC - Lake Charles Westake G-R-Pet-Coke Plant

Adams Fork Energy LLC - Gilbert Grassroot Blue Ammonia Plant and Carbon Capture

Linde PLC - Beaumont Grassroot Blue Hydrogen Complex

Itochu Corporation -Fort Saskatchewan Grassroot Blue Ammonia-Methanol Plant Newpoint Gas LLC - Portsmouth Brownfield/Retrofit Clean Hydrogen Plant Nutrien Limited - Geismar Clean Ammonia (Blue Ammonia) Unit Addition Sandpiper Chemicals LLC - Texas City Grassroot Blue Methanol Plant Train 1

Air Products and Chemicals - Edmonton G/R Net-Zero Hydrogen Energy Complex

CF Industries Holdings - Donaldsonville Blue Ammonia and CO2 Capture Unit Additions Bia Energy - Shreveport Grassroot Blue Methanol (Alma1) Plant

Dow – UCC Seadrift Operations SMR Nuclear Plant

Shell Catalysts & Technologies - Announced a final investment decision of $121.7 million to expand its West Baton Rouge Parish facility in Louisiana.

ESG:

Currently active North America ESG-related projects: $1.33 trillion